NFL: Weak Offenses Galore Prop Up Unders
By this point of the NFL season, it’s usually pretty clear which teams are the haves and which teams are the have-nots, especially on offense.
Teams that have struggled to score for 60-plus percent of the season likely aren’t going to magically turn things around once December starts, and vice versa.
So, when looking at some of the matchups on the Week 13 NFL slate, there are a few featuring lackluster offenses going up against each other. If you’re betting online and are interested in point totals — particularly unders — then this just might be the week for you.
Let’s take a look at a few of the more intriguing NFL football lines for this week with an eye toward some particularly juicy unders:
Second Runner-Up: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Total: 40½ Points
The Giants have had enough trouble scoring points with starting quarterback Daniel Jones healthy and it’s certainly not going to be any easier without him in Sunday’s game against the Dolphins. Jones is dealing with a strained neck and Mike Glennon is set to get the start.
New York is 26th in football in scoring offense and 24th in total yards from scrimmage and is coming off a 13-point game against the Philadelphia Eagles and 10-point game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It doesn’t help that the Dolphins have allowed 17 points or fewer in each of their last four games and are on a four-game winning streak.
Miami’s offensive numbers are similarly unimpressive, as the Dolphins are 24th in scoring offense and 25th in total yards. Tua Tagovailoa has been inconsistent all season even if he has played better of late and the Dolphins don’t have many playmakers. Plus, the Giants have done well to bend but not break, thanks in part to their 19 forced turnovers (sixth in the NFL). The under is the move here, even if the total is low on the BetUS Sportsbook.
Pick: Under 40½ Points
First Runner-Up: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Total: 45½ Points
Granted, the Cardinals’ top-five offense usually isn’t a good thing for an under bet, but Arizona still might be without a fully healthy Kyler Murray this week even after a bye. Murray hasn’t played in a month and while Colt McCoy did a good job filling in for him, it’s clear Arizona is only an elite offense with both Murray and a similarly banged-up DeAndre Hopkins on the field.
They each practiced on Wednesday but, even if they play on Sunday, they will likely be far from their usual explosive selves. Arizona is good enough to win without them at their best but, from a point-scoring perspective, they’ll be really limited.
The Cardinals also have a top-five defense that should feast on the Bears’ 29th-ranked scoring offense. Justin Fields, dealing with a rib injury, practiced on Wednesday but backup Andy Dalton took snaps with the starters, which is a sign that Fields’ status for Sunday is very much up in the air. Arizona’s pass rush should have a field day with Dalton and his lack of mobility.
If you’re making NFL predictions, look for this game to be one-sided in favor of Arizona, which should be able to shut down the Bears’ anemic offense regardless of who is under center.
Pick: Under 45½ Points
Over of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET Total: 45½ Points
There’s another potential quarterback injury that could affect the Eagles’ game against the lowly Jets this Sunday. Philadelphia starter Jalen Hurts (ankle) is expected to play on Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but he could be limited considering how much of his game is predicated on his speed and agility. The Eagles are 12th in scoring offense overall but they only put up seven points against the New York Giants last Sunday and are prone to offensive droughts if Hurts isn’t churning through defenses through the air and on the ground.
The Jets’ offense has actually been better in recent weeks since offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur started calling games from upstairs and not on the field. But, New York is 27th in scoring offense and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson is still coming back from a knee injury. Wilson has also struggled mightily with turnovers in his first pro season and is getting used to the speed of the NFL game.
The concern here is that the Jets’ defense is among the league’s worst, but it has been much better the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Houston Texans, holding Houston scoreless in the second half on Sunday. Things might be looking up for New York’s defense, which is a great sign for this under.